| Origami: a swing and a miss |
a guest column by Kelly Nehowig (Mar. 21, 2006)
 Foreword: Following considerable industry speculation, Microsoft formally unveiled the rumored Origami platform at the CeBIT tradeshow in Germany earlier this month. After reviewing the "Ultra Mobile PC" (UMPC) concept in as much detail as has been made available at this stage, guest columnist Kelly Nehowig shares a few thoughts on UMPCs, their challenges, and what they need in order to be successful. Nehowig compliments Microsoft on attempting to move the whole concept of mobile computing forward, but he predicts that the device vendors -- who will actually make the UMPCs -- are destined for trouble. Here's why . . .
Origami: a swing and a miss
by Kelly Nehowig
The Mobile landscape
The mobile computing landscape continues to evolve. In the year 2000, mobile computing devices were essentially limited to laptop computers and the emerging personal digital assistants (PDAs). Laptops were big and heavy (relative to today), and PDAs had a limited degree of functionality -- but these two types of devices formed the core of what most "road warriors" carried on their travels. To stay in touch with the office, the ubiquitous cell phone provided the means to make voice calls and check voice mail.
Today, laptops remain the primary mobile computing device of choice. They certainly have improved in terms of size and weight, and their cost continues to fall. PDAs seem to have reached their apex in 2004, and now, more and more of the typical need for a PDA (scheduling, email, contact info) has migrated to the "smart" mobile phone, which can sync with PCs, maintain personal schedules, store contact information, and provide remote email access. As a result, today's business user is typically armed with a laptop and a mobile phone.
In addition to these portable computing platforms, tremendous innovation has occurred on the "consumer" side of portable electronics. Apple has had unprecedented success with the iPod in the digital multimedia consumer space. The iPod proves that a consumer device with the right specs (size, weight, capability) and the right price point can create a new product category. Apple continues to expand the reach of this device by providing video-capable models, giving the user a pocket-sized device for not only listening to music and viewing digital photos, but also for viewing digital video content.
Where does Origami fit?
It seems that with Origami, Microsoft is attempting to straddle the consumer electronics (CE) device fence with a new category of mobile computing device. The initial Origami devices -- now officially called Ultra Mobile PCs (UMPCs) -- typically sport 7-inch touchscreen displays, less than 2 inches deep, and weigh around 2 lbs. This makes them larger than PDAs, but smaller than traditional Tablet PCs. As with slate-style Tablet PCs and most PDAs, only a soft keyboard is provided (via the touchscreen), although a traditional USB keyboard can be added externally.
This UMPC version is expected to become available soon
(View more UMPC pictures here)
Unlike the PDA, but like the iPod, Origami devices are equipped with hard drives to provide lots of storage capacity for multimedia applications.
From the software perspective, Microsoft is equipping Origami with tools that provide a full range of multimedia capability. For example, one of the applications that will be supplied by Microsoft for use on Origami is called "Program Launcher," which allows the user quick access to view digital pictures, listen to music, or other multimedia functions.
In short, Microsoft seems to be continuing to evolve the concept of a portable, media-centric PC based based on the limited success (or failure, you decide) of two other product platform categories -- the Portable Media Center and the Tablet PC.
Let's take a quick look at those two types of devices: -
 The Portable Media Center (PMC) was Microsoft's attempt to encourage vendors to produce a true consumer multimedia device -- one could load digital photos, music, and video to the device for portable viewing away from the PC. The problems with the PMC were primarily twofold: first, it was not a true computer and therefore was limited to the software that was supplied by the device maker; and secondly, its price point was too high (typically well over $500 dollars). Size, battery life, and competition from other consumer devices (e.g. Apple) also ended up burying this product concept about a year ago.
-
 The Tablet PC, introduced by Microsoft over two years ago, is essentially a notebook PC without the keyboard. In place of the keyboard, Microsoft designed a touch-screen interface that uses a stylus. Although it has never gained widespread acceptance with the general market, the Tablet PC has found some limited success in vertical markets such as healthcare, insurance, and mobile data collection. While it is a full PC that runs an optimized version of Windows XP ("Windows XP Tablet PC Edition"), the size of the devices, the limitations of keyboardless input methods, and their cost (typically over $1500) have prevented the more general acceptance of this platform.
Problems with the initial Origami devices
So now we have the Origami platform -- essentially a "down-sized" version of the Tablet PC with new software additions intended to make enjoying multimedia easy for the average consumer. This combination of features may resonate with the consumer, but again, some of the problems that plagued the PMC and the full-sized Tablet PC continue to haunt Origami: - Size -- the current crop of devices that will run Origami are simply too large. Essentially, the vendors have chosen to simply scale down existing notebook PC thinking, and have produced devices that are too thick, too heavy, and too cumbersome to be used in a true portable environment (think of the Ipod).
- Battery life -- initial reports indicate that Origami devices may be limited to around three hours of operation per battery charge. Consumers, who will want their devices to be usable for 8-10 hours between charges, are likely to find this problematic.
- Most importantly, price -- Microsoft has publicly stated that its intention is to work with the hardware vendors to produce devices that will retail in the $600 to $1000 range. Based on the information we have seen, the initial devices will retail near the high end of this range, and indications are that many devices may come in with even higher price tags. Consumers are likely to reject the devices, since they will be compared to notebook PCs with comparable or lower price points. In short, consumers will decide Origami does not provide the proper capability at the proper price point.
What needs to happen for Origami to succeed?
What Microsoft needs to do is encourage its development partners to "break the mold" the way Apple did with the iPod, and the way Motorola did with the Razr cellphone. Simply repackaging existing notebook/tablet technology won't create the necessary product to drive this new market forward.
The size of the unit needs to be as close as possible to the dimensions of the touchscreen itself. In addition, "thin is in" -- the iPod and Razr have established a new thickness benchmark for next-generation consumer devices. Origami needs to follow this trend.
Additionally, this breakthrough thinking needs to be delivered at a realistic price point. Around $500 seems to fit the current landscape -- more than a high-end iPod, but less than a moderately-priced laptop. Any more than that takes the the UMPC out of the "disposable" income range, and raises it to the point where it overlaps with low-end laptops.
Conclusion
Origami is a great move forward in the mobile computing space -- from the software perspective. But while the operating system software will lead to great things, the current crop of devices that are being announced are likely to have a tough time finding a foothold among the general public, and will probably be relegated to early adaptors and niche applications.
Until the devices are made smaller, and with battery operation that lasts a reasonable amount of time, their acceptance will remain limited. Most importantly, the devices need to hit a $500 retail price point to be successful.
Copyright (c) 2006 Kelly Nehowig, Applied Logic Engineering, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduced by WindowsForDevices.com with permission.
 About the author: Kelly Nehowig is President of Applied Logic Engineering, Inc., a Minneapolis-based consulting company specializing in software development products and services. A 24-year veteran of the software industry, he has worked with companies from startups to large corporate clients. Nehowig holds a MS degree in Software Engineering from the University of St. Thomas and a BS degree in Electronic Engineering from Minnesota State University - Mankato. He can be reached via email.
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