TDG expects Microsoft to pass Linux eventually, by leveraging its OS products for both mobile phones and connected PDAs (Windows Smartphone and Pocket PC, respectively). TDG also expects Microsoft to effectively leverage tight integration with its other Windows OS products, in both the enterprise and "advanced consumer" markets, to come out on top of the advanced phone OS market by 2010 with a 29 percent share, followed by a 26 percent share for Linux, and a 22 percent share for Symbian.
Other analyst firms researching advanced mobile phone OS shipments have been divided on whether to include phone-enabled PDAs, such as those powered by Microsoft's Windows Mobile "Pocket PC Phone" software. Gartner does not, and sees
Windows trailing Linux. IDG on the other hand, which does include phone-enabled PDAs, reported
Windows ahead of Linux in its most recent report.
Lee Allen, lead mobile analyst at TDG, stated, "2007 will see the beginning of Symbian's decline in share, as the combined market penetration of Windows, Linux, and native Java begin to erode developer and vendor support for Symbian."
Another analyst firm, ABI, says Symbian's marketshare is
already slipping.
Other findings from TDG's study include:
- The emergence of the Chinese market, more sophisticated applications, and "seamless mobility" will drive adoption of more complex OSes
- The marketplace winner will be determined by factors such as integration with other platforms, how easy it is to develop applications, and the mix between looseness and tightness in the developer organization
- The main result of crossfire between Windows Mobile and Linux will be to pave the way for SavaJe and other native Java platforms
Additional findings are available in a TDG report entitled "
Advanced Mobile Operating Systems: Analysis & Forecasts." In addition to forecasts and analysis, the report includes technology overviews for Windows Mobile 5.0, Linux, MontaVista Linux, Palm OS, SavaJe, and Symbian. It costs $1,500 for five readers, or $2,500 for an unlimited number of readers internal to an organization.
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