| Report sizes up Intel's x86 competition |
Aug. 04, 2003
A report released by In-Stat/MDR takes a look at Intel's competitors who make x86 compatible processors. Despite industry pundits' expectation that they would not survive, AMD and other Intel x86 competitors (such as VIA and Transmeta) have subsisted and even, at times, thrived, the report finds -- this, in spite of the economic roller coaster of the past several years. The near future, however, is uncertain, the report says.
"It is widely recognized that Intel makes a very formidable competitor, and conventional wisdom would dictate that it is fool-hardy of these companies to challenge the behemoth's grasp on this market," says Kevin Krewell of In-Stat/MDR. "But like moths to the flame, each is drawn by the promise of riches selling x86 processors."
According to the report, AMD has proved to be an able competitor to Intel across all the various market segments, but Transmeta and VIA only compete in one or two markets. AMD is also the oldest and most persistent Intel competitor, and has gone through times where many thought the company would not survive; and 2004 could be the final make-or-break year for the company.
In-Stat/MDR estimates that AMD grew its market share in x86 processors from 16% in 2000 to 20% in 2001, but dropped back to 16% in 2002. VIA and Transmeta, combined, held slightly more than 1% market share in 2002 and made no substantial gains from 2001. VIA's market share should remain stable in 2003 and 2004, but Transmeta will lose share during the product transition from the TM5800 to the TM8000.
Other findings of the report include . . . - AMD competes with Intel across the board with desktop, mobile, server, and value processors. But AMD must control its chip costs by swiftly migrating to 90nm in 2004. AMD needs competitive mainstream product and will continue to use its model numbering system to be competitive with Intel's higher-clocking Pentium 4. The model numbering scheme will also allow AMD to substitute the more cost effect Paris die (with its smaller cache) for the larger ClawHammer die in the Athlon 64 line. AMD needs to make its Opteron family a success in order to improve its overall ASP to the point where it can be profitable. In order to drive sufficient volume, it will need major server OEM support. IBM has made an initial box with an Opteron, but AMD will need much more than that.
- VIA's challenge for the future will be to chart its own path in systems buses in 2005. Just as AMD did with Athlon, VIA must create an infrastructure independent of Intel's. VIA is in a good position to do so because of its extensive system logic experience.
- Transmeta will require a significant period of time regaining design sockets for the TM8000, as many TM5800 designs have migrated to Pentium M. Transmeta new mobile processors will be under significant ASP pressure. The low volumes of Transmeta designs, the time necessary to win sockets for the TM8000, and the pressure on ASP to win back sockets are not promising strategies to improve Transmeta's top line revenue.
The report, "Intel x86 Competitors," covers the Desktop, Mobile, Value, and Server processor business of AMD, Transmeta, and VIA. It includes volume estimates by product and manufacturing cost estimates for AMD to 4Q 04. The report also covers the introduction of Athlon 64 from AMD, TM8000 from Transmeta and C5XL and CN processor from VIA. Roadmaps include each vendor's migration to 0.09-micron semiconductor process technology. Chip set and platform technologies are included. In addition, AMD's strategy to move the mainstream market to 64-bit computing in 2004, as it struggles to balance challenges by Intel's Pentium M and Pentium 4 processors, is also included.
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