| Origami unfolds into Ultra Mobile PC |
Mar. 05, 2006
 The mysterious Microsoft Origami Project now appears to be a mobile mini-tablet running Windows XP on Pentium processors. The "Wintel" duo, which owns the desktop but holds a mere fraction of the exploding mobile-phone market, is set to reveal its next big idea for mobile computing at two shows this week -- Intel Developer Forum in San Francisco, and CeBIT in Hannover, Germany.
News flash
Further information on Origami has surfaced -- read the latest update here:
Origami fever spreads
 Early speculation suggested that Origami had evolved from a circa-2001 National Semiconductor multi-function Origami concept prototype. However, later indications were that Origami would be a successor to the small wireless mini-tablet showcased by Bill Gates in his spring 2005 WinHEC keynote (photo at right), and that it might be some sort of "iPOD-and-Blackberry killer" rolled into one.
Then, a flash presentation was discovered on the website of DigitalKitchen, a Microsoft marketing service provider. The presentation, which was subsequently reported to be a year-old concept exposition rather than a current characterization of the project, soon disappeared from DigitalKitchen's website. It depicted a wireless mini Web pad that performed a combination of communications, GPS, Media Center, and Tablet PC functions -- including voice, navigation, note taking, sketching, instant messaging, multimedia playing, and more -- as shown in the following frames that we captured from the video prior to its disappearance.
       
Several views of the Origami, from DigitalKitchen's presentation
Origami unfolds into Ultra Mobile PC
The latest rumor, reported Friday by the New York Times, is that Intel has a leading role in the unfolding Origami plot, and that Intel will use the name Ultra Mobile PC (UMPC) as its designation for the Origami devices.
Based on what was depicted in DigitalKitchen's Microsoft Origami Project video, we initially conjectured that the devices would be based on mobile-handheld processors such as Intel's PXA27x Bulverde and would run either Windows CE or Windows Mobile software, in order to minimize costs and power consumption. However, Microsoft last week confirmed that Origami devices would use a version of Windows XP, resulting in the need for a higher performance x86-architecture processor and greater memory resources.
Adding the Wintel dimension to Origami, the devices unveiled this week will mostly likely be based on Intel's Ultra Low Voltage (ULV) Pentium M or Celeron M processors, although other processors -- such as AMD's "Geode", Via's "CoreFusion", and Transmeta's "Crusoe" -- seem destinated to play a future role.
Origami specs-ulation
Based on all the Origami buzz to date, we now predict the following baseline Origami specs: - Mini tablet form-factor
- 7-inch TFT LCD touchscreen
- 1 GHz Intel ULV Mobile Pentium M or Celeron M processor
- 1 GB SDRAM system memory
- Built-in 1GB flash storage
- Built-in 802.11b WiFi and Bluetooth
- Built-in GPS receiver
- SDIO/MMC expansion slot for flash and other expansion
- Operating system -- a Windows XP-based OS, most likely enhanced by:
- Tablet PC Edition extensions (e.g. handwriting recognition)
- Media Center Edition extensions
- VoIP support
- GPS support
- Price -- $750 to $1,000
The competition
Interestingly, several companies have already introduced or announced Windows XP-based handheld mini-tablet PCs over the past several years, including OQO and DualCor Technologies.
 OQO, which has made "ultra personal computers" (UPCs) for several years, recently began shipping a UPC running Windows XP Tablet PC Edition that offers handwriting input. The 4.9 x 3.4 x 0.9-inch OQO model 01+ is based on a 1 GHz Transmeta x86 processor and is equipped with 512 MB of DRAM and a 30 GB built-in hard drive. The device boasts a 5-inch 800x480 pixel touchscreen LCD along with a slide-out QWERTY thumb keyboard, and it provides both 802.11b and Bluetooth wireless, as well as connections for USB 2.0, Firewire, and Ethernet (available via a docking cable).
 For its part, start-up DualCor recently unveiled a 6.5 x 3.3 x 1.2-inch handheld that combines the functions of a Tablet PC with those of a Pocket PC Phone. Like OQO's devices, DualCor's cPC has a 5-inch 800x480 pixel touch-screen. Unlike the OQO handhelds, the unusual cPC runs two OSes -- on two processors, no less. Windows XP Tablet Edition runs on a 1.5GHz Via C7-M processor, equipped with 1GB of DDR 2 DRAM memory and a 40GB hard drive, while Windows Mobile 5.0 Pocket PC Phone Edition runs on an unspecified XScale processor equipped with 128MB of DRAM and 1GB of Flash. The device also provides two USB 2.0 type A ports, one USB 2.0 type B port, and a CompactFlash Type II slot.
Compared to Origami, OQO's UPC currently goes for a whopping $2099, roughly double the expected pricing for Origami devices. Additionally, both OQO's and DualCor's devices have smaller screens -- 5 inches, vs. 7 inches for Microsoft's Origami. DualCore, which offers the advantage of including Pocket PC Phone capabilities, has disclosed neither availability nor pricing of its device.
Nokia's lower-end alternative
 Nokia takes a lower-end tack with its 770 Internet Tablet, which runs a Linux-based software platform and sells for around $360. The device, which features a 4.3-inch 800 x 480 pixel touch-screen LCD, is substantially smaller than the Origami devices demoed by Gates and shown in the DigitalKitchen video. The 770 boasts built-in WiFi, Bluetooth, and an RS-MMC (reduced-size-MMC) memory card slot, and its bundled software suite is mostly oriented toward Web browsing and media playing. It includes a version of Opera's mobile browser, along with an email client, multimedia player, image viewer, sketching, note-taking, and games. VoIP capabilities will be added in an upcoming software update.
Compared to Origami, the 770 offers smaller size, lighter weight, and, most likely, longer battery life. But these advantages come at a cost: constrained processor and memory resources -- a 200 MHz TI OMAP processor, 64 MB of SDRAM, and 128MB of flash (expandable via RS-MMC) -- and a limited set of available application software, in comparison with all that Windows XP has to offer. On the other hand, by the time Origami comes to market sometime next year (or later), the Nokia Internet Tablet can be expected to have evolved, both in terms of computing resources and available applications.
Our opinion
We reckon consumers, who already have desktop and laptop PCs running a full Windows XP software stack, will be reticent to shell out $750 or more for a fairly large, high-powered device that requires handwriting or soft-keyboard taps as input -- and that might easily get dropped or lost.
Instead, we think Nokia has the right idea but the wrong software. In our opinion, a Windows Mobile version of the 770 Internet Tablet -- but with more DRAM and flash, and an honest-to-goodness SDIO slot -- priced under $400, would be a real winner.
Not that we don't think the Microsoft Windows XP Origami idea has merit. It's just that from a Moore's Law perspective, the necessary economies of scale are still several years off.
Teasers on both the Microsoft Origami Project and the Intel Ultra Mobile PC websites indicate that we can expect to find out more details from each member of the Wintel team on March 7th and March 9th, respectively.
We'll have more to say on this topic then.
Updates
[Update on Mar. 6th] -- Microsoft evangelist Robert Scoble, who kicked off the Origami buzz a couple of weeks ago, has posted a little poem-like comment on his blog. It's not an iPod, OQO, PSP, Treo 700W, Palm PDA, or Nokia 770 killer, he says. Nor is it a portable Xbox. "Visit Channel 9 on Thursday and you'll see," he adds.
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