| SIP, UMA, M2M poised for rapid growth |
Jul. 05, 2007
Products and services based on SIP (session initiation protocol), UMA (unlicensed mobile access), and cellular M2M (machine-to-machine) technologies are all poised for rapid growth, according to a trio of reports released this week by ABI Research. The forecasts track expected growth rate for each from 2006 to 2012.
SIP
SIP services will "become the norm after 2010 and will rapidly begin to dominate the world's telecom markets," according to the first report, entitled "The Worldwide SIP Services Market." By 2012 almost half of all telecom users will reportedly be using at least one SIP-based service, and more than likely will have many services from multiple devices, ABI says.
The market research firm expects SIP-based services to generate over $150 billion in service revenue annually by 2012, with cumulative infrastructure capital expenditure of over $10 billion by that date. A move to all-IP networks will be the chosen path for introducing new services, says the firm.
"The path to this all-IP goal is complicated: migrating existing services onto IP networks while retaining resources until they can be taken out of service is not a straightforward process," said ABI Research analyst Ian Cox in a statement. "Using SIP, telephony becomes another Web application, which can be integrated into other Internet services. It allows service providers to build converged voice and multimedia services."
By 2012, ABI expects almost 1.2 billion VoIP users to be active. Most users will subscribe to several forms of messaging and video sharing, while additional services supported by SIP will include presence, click-to-dial, buddy lists, email and Web access. These are assumed to be "core" services that will be included as part of any standard service offering.
UMA
While SIP services are being rolled out, UMA will make substantial progress as a means of bridging cellular and WiFi networks, according to ABI. In its second report, entitled "Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA): Vendor Ecosystem, Operator Deployment Activity, and Subscriber Forecasts," the firm forecasts UMA subscriber numbers to reach 65 million by 2012.
A number of major telecom operators around the world have been busy with UMA -- they like the idea because it relieves 3G network congestion, notes ABI. Last month, for example, T-Mobile announced a service called T-Mobile HotSpot @Home, offering cell phones that automatically switch over to WiFi for calling when available.
"Until recently, proponents of competing fixed-mobile convergence solutions frequently cited the fact that UMA was only usable with 2G orenhanced 2G cellular services," stated ABI principal analyst Philip Solis. "But recently, the UMA client software has received an upgrade that will allow it to work with 3G handsets and services, offering another mobile broadband FMC option that will be viable for some time to come."
M2M
Finally, in its third report, entitled "The Cellular M2M Market," ABI forecasts that cellular M2M modules will have a compound annual growth rate of 31 percent between 2006 and 2012.
Although cellular M2M module shipment numbers in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific are approximately equal at present, says the report, these markets differ significantly in character. Europe is the most advanced market in terms of its sophistication and openness to M2M, and it benefits from the ubiquity of GSM/GPRS technology. Asia-Pacific is the largest market, but it’s characterized by a fragmented assortment of air standards, and most shipments are actually for wireless local loop (WLL) applications.
"North America is a significant cellular M2M market that differs from the other regional markets in three key respects," stated ABI senior analyst Sam Lucero. He cites "the prevalence of CDMA air interface technology; the significant share of the market comprised of OEM telematics; and the rigorous, expensive, and time-consuming certification process required by the four main North American mobile network operators."
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