| Mini-notebook shipments up sharply |
Aug. 14, 2008
 A Gartner study estimates 5.2 million mini-notebooks will ship this year, rising to 8 million units in 2009. The Gartner study pegs Windows XP and Linux as the two dominant operating systems (OSes) in the segment, which could hit 50 million shipments annually by 2012.
In the study, called "Dataquest Insight: Forecast Scenarios for Mini-notebooks, Worldwide," Gartner deaafines mini-notebooks as having a screen size of five to 10 inches, similar to the general definition being bandied about for the "netbook" category. The netbook-like mini-notebooks are further defined as running a full client OS, and as being larger than MIDs (mobile internet devices) and UMPCs (ultra-mobile PCs), which often do not feature keyboards, and which Gartner refers to as "micro-information devices."
By most accounts, the netbook/mini-notebook category has been booming lately. A recent study by Market Intelligence Center (MIC) of Taiwan predicted that global shipments of "low-price mini notebooks" will reach 8.02 million units in 2008 and 18.3 million units in 2009, with a near-term volume growth of 128 percent annually. The segment has been dominated by the Asus Eee PC (pictured at top) until recently, said MIC. However, consumers have an increasing variety of name-brand netbooks to choose from, such as Lenovo's IdeaPad S10, HP's HP 2133 Mini-Note PC, and Acer's Aspire One.
  
Asus EEE 901, MSI Wind NB U100, and Acer Aspire One
(Click any for details)
According to the MIC study, Windows XP has the edge over Linux in the category. Indeed, recently announced netbooks such as the IdeaPad S10 mentioned above, and Raon Digital's Everun Note, include only Windows XP Home, and no longer offer Linux as an option -- for the U.S. market, at least. Yet, it appears from anecdotal evidence that Linux market share remains larger than it has been for other laptop and desktop categories. Its strong presence in the category is perhaps due to the fact that it often has a slightly lower pricetag than a similar Windows XP version, especially when open-source software is factored in.
In addition, Linux was arguably the pioneer of the segment. Gartner did not release a breakdown of OS share for the mini-notebook segment, but it did note that the category began with "low-cost education PCs," no doubt referring to the One Laptop per Child (OLPC) Foundation's XO. The XO began as a Linux-based system, and has also recently gained a Windows XP option (though the early builds of XO XP have garnered poor reviews).
Though it might have gained lost ground, there's no question that Microsoft was unprepared for how popular mini-notebooks and netbooks would become. After all, the devices made their debut with processors slower than 1GHz, and still do not run Windows Vista well. Yet until early April of this year, the Redmond giant was insisting that direct OEM and retail sales of Windows XP (though not Windows XP Embedded) would have to cease by the end of June. The company's revised product roadmap says Windows XP Home can legally be drafted for netbook duty, "through the later of June 30, 2010, or one year after the general availability of the next version of the Windows operating system."
New rules for the notebook business
Since the end of 2007, the mini-notebook audience has expanded to "consumers in both mature and emerging markets and a few business buyers," says Gartner. Consumers will eventually account for about 70 percent of mini notebooks, says the study, with key adoption drivers including market positioning, device price, availability and cost of wireless connectivity, and support from channel partners and retailers.
Stated Annette Jump, research director at Gartner, demand for the minis will be driven by "their small form factor and small screen, their light weight, their price, their ease of use and their basic, but sufficient, PC functionality."
Jump went on to say, "Potential users are likely to include both first-time buyers seeking a low-cost introductory PC as well as experienced users seeking a low-cost second or third PC for themselves or a relative."
Vendors of traditional business-oriented notebooks will need to make adjustments for the new consumer audience, says Jump. "PC vendors will need to pay increasing attention to the design and ease of use of mini-notebooks," she says. "These will be two crucial factors in this segment."
PC vendors may also need to adjust their channel strategies, Jump says, "and possibly look for new channels, such as telecom, gadget shops, and so on."
Availability
The study, called "Dataquest Insight: Forecast Scenarios for Mini-notebooks, Worldwide," is available for registered subscribers here.
For a guide to netbooks, see our regularly updated Windows-powered netbook showcase.
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