| Multi-core processors proliferate, but software lags |
Sep. 17, 2007
Venture Development Corporation (VDC) is predicting a "paradigm shift" in the embedded market, from traditional single-core processors to processors with multiple cores. By 2011, revenues from multi-core processors used in embedded applications are forecast to reach 6 times 2007 levels, and over 44 times 2006 levels.
"Single-core processors and performance imperative of Moore's Law may be approaching an upper limit in terms of adding increasing processing power simply by increasing clock speeds," says VDC's report. "In response to this problem, processor suppliers have turned to multi-core architectures, which ... have the potential of increasing processing performance while reducing processor footprints and providing better thermal characteristics."
Earlier this year, Intel shipped its first two embedded processors with 4-way cores, the 2.0GHz Xeon E5335 and 2.33GHz Xeon E5345. Rival AMD has countered with quad-core versions of its Opteron processors.
Meanwhile, dual-core chips have become common, not only in the server and desktop markets, but also in embedded. As long ago as 2005, embedded chip vendors working on or shipping chips with multiple processor cores included Broadcom (MIPS), PMC-Sierra (MIPS), Freescale (PowerPC), Cavium (MIPS), TI (ARM11/DSP), ARM Ltd. (ARM), NEC (ARM), and Centrality (ARM9/DSP).
Multi-core CPUs used in embedded a normalized growth curve, 2006-2011; dollar value shipments normalized to year 2006 value
(Click to enlarge; Source: VDC)
"The embedded multi-core CPU market very much equates to a billion dollar opportunity over the next five years," said Eric Heikkila, director of VDC's embedded hardware and systems practice. "The immense growth opportunity associated with the CPU piece of the multi-core market is only the tip of the iceberg, as rapid growth is predicted for multi-core DSP and Processor-IP revenues as well."
But, added Heikkila, a major gap currently exists between multi-core silicon and software enabled to take advantage of the available performance. Software vendors that can successfully bridge that gap may stand to gain even more revenue than do the processor vendors, he suggested.
Most embedded programmers have used C/C++ in the past, whose traditional sequential nature does not scale well, the report's authors say. "However, programmers are able to partially enable C/C++ for multi-core processors through extensions that can be added to existing code. Solutions that enable C/C++ insofar as possible will become prevalent because CC++ is so ingrained."
VDC says it asked embedded software vendors to rate their industry as a whole, on a scale of 1 to 5, with regard to its level of preparedness for the technical issues posted by multi-core processors. The average rating given was 2.06, says the firm, with no interviewee giving the industry a rating higher than 3.
The 162-page report, entitled "Multi-Core Computing in Embedded Applications," costs $7,950. It tracks multi-core processor adoption by bus architecture and form-factor, surveys a wide range of chip vendors, and covers data obtained from more than a dozen embedded OS and tools vendors. More information is available here.
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