| Linux to dominate MIDs? |
Oct. 13, 2008
 Intel CEO Paul Otellini (pictured) reportedly told the Associated Press that Linux will dominate sales of mobile Internet devices (MIDs). Meanwhile, ABI Research predicts that by 2013, Windows will be outsold by Linux two to one in the combined market for MIDs, netbooks, and UMPCs.
In his interview with Otellini, Associated Press interviewer Peter Svensson writes, "The push into smaller gadgets is set to take Intel further away from Microsoft." The Intel CEO reportedly said "I see much of the activity in MIDs, sort of the evolution of the handset, being centered around Linux."
This MID, the R50A from Asus, uses Windows Vista
(Click image for further information)
Otellini was also reported to have noted the fast growth in sales of netbooks, where Windows XP and Linux are the leading contenders. "I've not seen energy like this from our customers in a long, long time," he was quoted as saying.
The loser on both netbook and MID platforms here, Otellini suggested, is Windows Vista. "Vista has a larger memory footprint, a larger graphics requirement, and a higher price point. This is all about low-cost computing," Otellini was quoted as saying.
ABI: a two-to-one edge for Linux?
Separately, ABI Research offered details from a recent report on what it calls UMDs (ultra-mobile devices). ABI says the category fills the gap between smartphones and notebooks, and includes MIDs, UMPCs (ultra mobile PCs), and netbooks. The research group forecasts that the total number of such UMD units will jump from 10 million units in 2008 to over 200 million in 2013, representing $27 billion in sales, up from $3.5 billion.
In its report, "MIDs and Mobile CE [consumer electronics] Market Data," ABI Research made the following additional forecasts for the year 2013:- Linux will outnumber Windows devices by two to one across all UMDs
- More than half of all UMDs will be based on x86 processors, notably the Atom, while the balance will be based on ARM
- Only 20 percent of UMDs will be provided by mobile operators
- Cellular voice-enabled MIDs will "become the new high-end smartphones"
A clouded crystal ball?
While the above statements and projections might suggest feeble prospects for Microsoft in the UMD market, it's unlikely that the software giant is quaking in its boots. It's worth remembering that the first netbooks, such as the original Asus Eee PC, were Linux devices. Microsoft adroitly sidestepped concerns about Vista's hardware requirement by simply allowing Windows XP Home Edition to be licensed for netbooks and, later, for the class of low-cost desktop PCs Intel calls "nettops."
We haven't seen hard numbers on what proportion of today's netbook sales involved Windows XP. But last week, Asus chief executive Jerry Shen reportedly told the Guardian newspaper in London that while he'd hoped Eee PC sales would be split 50:50 between XP and Linux, they're actually 60:40 in favor of XP. Netbooks, once aimed at schoolchildren or geeky early adopters, are now part of the mainstream market, as exemplified by Asus' recent "fashion forward" Eee PC S101.
Additionally, Andy Tung, the director of U.S. sales for fellow netbook manufacturer MSI, reportedly told Laptop magazine that "the return rate is at least four times higher for Linux netbooks than Windows XP netbooks." For more details, see our sister site LinuxDevices.com, here.
Should Redmond become concerned about growing Linux momentum, there's absolutely nothing technically or logistically to stop Microsoft from licensing Windows XP on MIDs, any time it likes. And ironically, while Intel first began touting its MID concept with Linux in April 2007, and has been showing off prototypes at various developer forums ever since, the first Intel-based MIDs actually to reach consumers apparently run Windows.
Aigo's P8860D
(Click image for further information) |
For example, Aigo's P8860D, said to be going on sale this month for $600, is a MID with a slide-out QWERTY keyboard, 4.8-inch screen, and Windows XP. Meanwhile, Asus' R50A (pictured above) has a 5.6-inch screen, optional external folding keyboard, and Windows Vista.
Further information
ABI Research's latest "UMD" report, "MIDs and Mobile CE Market Data," should be available here.
To read Peter Svensson's interview with Paul Otellini, see the USA Today website, here. To read the Guardian interview with Jerry Shen of Asus, see the newspaper's website, here.
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